Forex Today: Crude Oil Higher, Agricultural Commodities Fall

Fourteen days into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russian forces continue to make very slow progress, with the US estimating 4,000 Russian soldiers killed including some generals. Talks between Russia and Ukraine have produced no results, with Russia claiming it would withdraw if the Ukraine cedes Crimea, some eastern regions, and promises never to join NATO or any other military alliance. Poland yesterday proposed transferring fighter aircraft to Ukraine via the USA but the USA has refused the plan.The war in Ukraine and resultant nuclear threats from Russia have had a strong impact on financial markets, but markets are beginning to stabilize, with all the strong trends experiencing reversals yesterday with the exception of energies such as crude oil, which are continuing to rise, but at a much slower pace.WTI Crude Oil traded above $128 yesterday, and continues to look bullish, so higher prices look likely. The US announced yesterday a ban on all Russian energy exports, with the Russians countering by stating they will announce a list of countries shortly to which they will refuse to export any commodities.

Agricultural commodities such as Wheat and Corn finally seem to have peaked after their parabolic rises over recent days. Precious metals are performing strongly, with Gold trading very close its all-time high of $2,075 yesterday. Palladium rose strongly to hit a 6-month high, as 40% of global Palladium is mined in Russia.The Fitch ratings agency has reduced its rating of Russian government bonds to junk status and warned that Russia is probably close to defaulting. More multinational companies are announcing they will cease doing business in Russia, at least temporarily. The Russian government yesterday banned its residents from purchasing Forex with Rubles.Daily new coronavirus cases globally seem to have peaked six weeks ago, showing that the omicron variant wave is in strong decline almost everywhere.It is estimated that 63.4% of the world’s population has received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccination.Total confirmed new coronavirus cases worldwide stand at over 450 million with an average case fatality rate of 1.34%.The rate of new coronavirus infections appears to now be increasing only in Bhutan, Brunei, China, South Korea, Liechtenstein, Malaysia, Mauritius, New Zealand, Thailand, Tonga, and Vietnam.