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‘Could Have Been Worse’: 3 Analysts Reflect on Snap After Earnings Miss Pushed Shares Lower


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Shares of Snap (NYSE:SNAP) are down nearly 2% in premarket trading Friday after the company reported Q1 earnings.

How did Snap Perform in Q1?

SNAP reported a Q1 adjusted loss per share of 2c, compared to $0 in the year-ago period and worse than the expected EPS of 0.01c. Revenue came in at $1.06 billion, up 38% YoY and just below the consensus estimates of $1.07 billion.

Adjusted EBITDA stood at $64.5 million in Q1, compared to an adjusted EBITDA loss of $1.71 billion in the same period last year and an estimated EBITDA of $27 million.

Snap reported 332 million daily active users (DAU) in the period, up 19% YoY, and consensus estimates of 330.5 million.

North America DAUs totaled 98 million, up 5.4% YoY and in line with analyst expectations. Europe DAUs stood at 84 million, up 9.1% and just above the consensus projection of 83.7 million. DAUs in the rest of the world totaled 150 million, up 35% YoY and topping the analyst consensus of 148.1 million.

Snap reported average revenue per user (ARPU) of $3.20, up 17% YoY and short of estimates of $3.24. The average revenue per user in North America was reported at $7.77, up 31% YoY and in line with the estimates of $7.79. The ARPU in Europe stood at $1.93, up 30% YoY and compared to the analyst expectations of $1.91. The rest of the world ARPU was 95c, up 2.2% YoY, while analysts were looking for 97c.

Q2 Guidance and Commentary

For Q2, Snap expects revenue growth in the range of 20% to 25%, while analysts were expecting 28% growth. The social media company expects adjusted EBITDA to range between $0 and $50 million in the second quarter, vastly short of consensus estimates of $145.1 million.

The company expects Q2 DAU in the range of 343 million to 345 million. Snap warned that the same Q1 headwinds including supply chain issues, inflation, the impact of higher interest rates and labor shortage are likely to persist in Q2.

Snap noted a considerable impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on its input costs, marketing budget, and economic confidence. It also warned of a potentially even more challenging operating environment going forward.

Analyst Reactions

Here’s how analysts reacted to Snap’s Q1 earnings report:

Citi’s Ronald Josey (Buy, PT $50): “Although 1Q results were mixed and 2Q revenue and EBITDA guidance came in below expectations mostly due to macro concerns, we are encouraged with continued DAU growth and overall engagement trends on the platform as well as Snap’s progress in improving monetization post Apple’s ATT platform changes.”

Credit Suisse’s Stephen Ju (Outperform, PT $77 from $88): “We maintain our Outperform rating on the following: 1) potential for better-than-expected DAU growth with a revamped Android app released in more geographies, 2) potential for better-than expected ad revenue on ramping product rollouts and marketer adoption, 3) monetization optionality from increased engagement from Games, Maps, and longer term Spotlight.”

BofA’s Justin Post (Buy, PT $50 from $55): “We continue to like Snap given: 1) Very strong 2Y rev trends in 2Q that gives us confidence that advertiser traction remains robust despite IDFA challenges and growth can accelerate in 2H’22 on easier comps, 2) Strongest user growth in the sector and stabilizing time spent data (SensorTower) suggests manageable impact from TikTok, 3) We see multiple product catalysts that could drive ARPU expansion (Spotlight/Maps monetization, measurement tools) and accelerate growth back to 50%, & 4) Attractive valuation vs history.”

By Senad Karaahmetovic

‘Could Have Been Worse’: 3 Analysts Reflect on Snap After Earnings Miss Pushed Shares Lower

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